Mick Ryan
In the wake of the Beijing military parade today, I posted a quick assessment with my initial impressions of the parade on social media. For those who are not on Twitter / X, I thought I would share that assessment here.
My initial assessment of the PLA parade that has just finished in Beijing.
Overall, no major surprises although there was some new equipment. The structure and content of the parade was pretty standard. Five key themes stood out for me, however.
Theme 1. Most of the weapons and platforms were not brand new, but generally, every land, air and sea platform was more modern than that in the inventories of western military organisations. Newer does not always mean better, however. While most western military equipment has been tested in Iraq, Ukraine and elsewhere, none of China's new kit has.
Theme 2. The new weapons and platforms were interesting and demonstrate the ongoing, advanced military R&D eco-system that China now has. The Large Underwater Uncrewed Vessels, the uncrewed rotary wing aircraft and the HHQ-16C, DF-61 and DF-31BJ missiles as well as the laser defence systems were new reveals by the PLA. I thought the UAV on the back of the Infantry Fighting Vehicle was interesting.
Long gone are the days where China was reliant on Russia or other foreign systems. This level of indigenous capacity infers high levels of sustainability in any future conflict.
Theme 3. Parades are not indictors of warfighting effectiveness. Notwithstanding the impressive orchestration of the parade, and highly synchronised music and marching, these have almost zero impact on the measurement of military effectiveness. While there have been large reforms of the past decade, particularly in the creation of joint theatre commands and strategic support institutions (space, cyber, etc), we need to watch exercises and activities such as Joint Swords / Strait Thunder around Taiwan and elsewhere to gain additional insights into real PLA capability.
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