Mick Ryan
Russia’s economy is fast approaching a fiscal crunch that will encumber its war effort. Though that may not be enough to compel Putin to seek peace, it does suggest that the walls are closing in on him.
In the latest attacks, Russian oil refineries in Samara and Krasnodar Krai have been hit just in the past day. Last Sunday, Ukraine also attacked a major condensate gas processing site near the Russian Baltic Sea port city St. Petersburg. As journalist Stefan Korshak described the attack in an article published by the Kyiv Post:
Flying wing drones tipped with explosive warheads swooped down on the Ust-Luga facility, Russia’s main processing site for natural gas piped from the Arctic and West Siberia, during the morning work shift. Eyewitnesses reported at least two massive fires following the daylight attack.
In the past 48 hours, the Ukrainians have also struck an oil pipeline supplying Moscow.
This fits the Ukrainian modus operandi. First, it is hitting Russia’s oil industry and hurting the Russian economy. Second, by cutting off oil supplies, it is making the war felt at home by Russian people – without targeting civilians directly like Russia does.
This extensive strike campaign by Ukraine is becoming an increasingly critical vulnerability for the Russian government. The earnings from their energy exports helps to fund Putin’s war, and reducing oil refining capacity impacts on this. Domestically, fuel rationing and shortages also indicate to Russian citizens that all is not well with their war against Ukraine and with how Putin is running their country.
In my previous exploration of Ukraine’s ongoing development and adaptation of a strategic, long-range strike capability, I wrote that:
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