Why we still don’t know where COVID-19 came from. And why we need to find out.

Gustavo Palacios, Adolfo García-Sastre, David A. Relman

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Five years after COVID-19 emerged, killing millions, costing trillions, and disrupting global life, we still don’t have a definitive answer as to the origins of the pandemic and the virus. This continued uncertainty is not due to scientific limitations but the withholding of critical information, particularly by China.

In June 2025, the WHO’s Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO), a panel of 27 international experts, published its most thorough analysis to date. What SAGO said is clear: Without China providing fundamental data, definitive conclusions remain impossible.

SAGO explicitly called for detailed records from several countries, especially China, but also Germany and the United States. While we can reasonably assume that the United States and Germany withheld portions of the requested intelligence to protect sources, methods, or collection practices, China withheld information that in most countries is treated as publicly available health information, such as early viral genome sequences, laboratory safety documentation, and detailed environmental samples from animal markets. We recognize that some of these data may be politically sensitive, as it relates to wildlife trade regulations or national biosecurity programs. Nonetheless, during a pandemic, China’s obligations under the International Health Regulations must take precedence.

As stated in the legally binding International Health Regulations (2005), each country must “notify WHO … within 24 hours” of assessing a potential public health emergency of international concern (Article 6) and must also respond to WHO requests to “verify” outbreaks, even when identified through unofficial sources (Article 9). China’s governmental response—issued on April 25, 2025 in its official white paper, “COVID-19 Prevention, Control and Origins Tracing: China’s Actions and Stance”—declared the investigation “finished.” Rather than suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 emerged from bats or susceptible animals, China insists, instead, that the virus was imported on frozen food.