2 September 2025

Will the next world war begin in orbit? Jonathan McDowell on strategic competition in space

Dan Drollette Jr 

He’s been called the “go-to expert for all things spaceflight” by the New York Times, and “the archivist of world spaceflight knowledge” by New Scientist.

Jonathan McDowell is a British-American astronomer and astrophysicist who works at the Harvard–Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics’s Chandra X-ray Center, where he was part of the group that operates this noted space telescope for the past 26 years. (Though he is in the process of moving.)

In his free time, McDowell conducts research into the history of spaceflight, and since 1989 has written and edited Jonathan’s Space Report,[1] a free internet newsletter documenting technical details on satellite launches.

So, McDowell seemed to be the perfect person to ask about strategic competition in space: Could the proliferation of players, and the increasing commercialization of space, lead to more competition, more accidents (both ones that are real and those serving as cover for aggressive behavior in the heavens), and more instability? In this interview with me, McDowell describes some of the myriad ways in which international friction—and even war—could begin in orbit. And he offers some urgent solutions.

Dan Drollette Jr: It sounds I caught you just before you leave the United States. You’ll be moving soon?

Jonathan McDowell: Yes, I’ll be moving to the UK in a few weeks, with about 1,500 square feet of bookcases containing an archive of the history of space exploration, satellites, and astronomy, from the era of the first V-2 rockets onwards—so, everything from the 1940s to today.

And finding the square footage to put all that in, at an affordable price, has been a challenge. I found a basement that I can convert into office space, and I’m going to buy a flat above it. But it’s a big process; it’s going to cost $50,000 just to ship the stuff from the Boston area to the UK.

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