Natiq Malikzada
In the end, the question that matters is not whether Bagram is valuable. It is. The right question is who President Trump should partner with to gain control over it.
President Donald Trump has long maintained that the United States’ chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021 was one of the worst moments in American history. Millions of Americans remember the images from that period: panicked crowds surrounding Kabul’s airport, civilians desperately clinging to military planes, and the carnage at Abbey Gate, where a suicide bomber took the lives of 13 US servicemembers. These images are seared into the public’s conscience, and Trump’s cry for retribution has found widespread support across the United States.
During his recent state visit to the United Kingdom, Trump tied the calamitous withdrawal from Afghanistan to a demand for the Taliban government’s return of Bagram Air Base to the United States. The president observed that the base overlooked China’s western Xinjiang region—and the country’s nuclear program—and an American presence at the base was therefore invaluable. Trump had made similar remarks during his 2024 election campaign. In his more recent comments, however, he added a threat: if the Taliban would not hand Bagram Air Base over to the United States, “BAD THINGS ARE GOING TO HAPPEN!!!”
It is clear that the point of Trump’s request for the return of Bagram is not merely an attempt to relitigate the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Instead, an American presence at Bagram would fundamentally reframe America’s posture in Central and South Asia around a single asset that symbolizes American power. In that sense, Bagram is less about the internal politics of Afghanistan, and more about a forward air hub aimed at China, Iran, Russia, and Central Asia as a whole.
It is unclear what will happen if the Taliban dismisses Trump’s demands. In the immediate aftermath of Trump’s comment on Truth Social referencing potential consequences if the group refused, its spokesperson called the idea “out of the question.” China, too, stressed respect for Afghanistan’s sovereignty and warned against steps that could destabilize the region. Russia and Iran have not issued any formal responses yet; however, given their hostility to the United States and the base’s location, both have strong incentives to support the Taliban’s refusal and to frame any US reentry to the region as a provocation.
Bagram Air Base’s Strategic Location
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