Joshua Yaphe
Over a decade into Yemen’s civil war, one expert explains why neither side can win—and how China, the US, and Gulf rivals are shaping the conflict.
The war in Yemen is now over a decade old, with no signs of resolution on the horizon. Israeli airstrikes last month decimated the senior ranks of the government in Sana’a, prompting the Houthis to appoint an almost entirely new cabinet. At the same time, in-fighting within the internationally recognized Yemeni government has forced a showdown within the Presidential Leadership Council over decision-making and legitimacy. Both sides are struggling to hold themselves together.
In this episode of Divergences, Khaldoon Bakahail, a strategic advisor with the Geneva Center for Security Sector Governance and a long-time expert on Yemeni political-military affairs, surveys the many issues that have led to the current stalemate and stagnation of the conflict. “The situation in Yemen,” he says, “is a kind of stalemate at this point. Both the internationally recognized government in Aden and the so-called Houthi government in Sana’a are facing massive challenges—politically, militarily, and moreover on the economic side at this moment.”
He argues that neither side will simply disappear. “There will be no easy military solution to the conflict in Yemen,” he says. “The analysis that the Houthis will just suddenly vanish and disappear and that continuous airstrikes will take them out of power—I don’t see this happening. Neither will the internationally recognized government be kicked out totally, given the backers supporting it, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE.”
That support, Bakahail explains, has allowed the Yemeni government to remain symbolically present with the international community amid what he calls “a policy of no policy” from Washington. “The ongoing ‘no policy’ in Yemen is causing more harm, I believe, to US national security interests than it is helping,” he says, warning that America’s diplomatic absence “only helps to distract the national security interests of the Americans … and definitely this will help the Russians and the Chinese. When you are not there, people will fill the vacuum.”
Bakahail also points to Beijing’s careful balancing act. “The Chinese are very smart playing their cards,” he notes. “They are still pursuing their neutrality, opening channels with all parties to the conflict—the Houthis, the government of Yemen—and balancing their strategic relations with the Gulf countries.”
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