Andrew Latham
Key Points and Summary – Russia is reorganizing for industrial war: fewer prestige projects, more factories, rotations, and repair cycles.
-The future force will be heavier, cheaper, and software-driven—favoring standoff fires, layered air defense, and drone-EW mass over classic air or maneuver dominance.
-The Black Sea Fleet’s dispersal, mass glide-bomb use, and iterative missile updates preview a doctrine of survivable coercion, not shock-and-awe.
-This makes Russia a regional power with global strike tools—dangerous but containable.
-NATO’s answer is production and resilience: stable magazines, rapid air-defense software refresh, hardened C2/EMS, and SHORAD/EW down to small units.
-Do the math now, and Moscow’s rebuilt military becomes manageable—not a strategic surprise.
Russia vs. NATO: How Moscow Sees the Future
Industrial wars rarely end with banners and brass; they end with a military that staggers out of the furnace, uglier than before but better suited to the fight it just survived.
After Ukraine, Moscow is likely to field a force that is heavier, cheaper, more automated, and optimized for grinding campaigns along its rim—not ten feet tall, but dangerous enough to coerce neighbors, complicate NATO planning, and secure Great Power standing through usable, sustainable force.
From Prestige to Production
The most consequential change has been organizational. Reconstituted military districts, revamped command arrangements, and a technocratic defense chief signal a system built to convert rubles into munitions, rotations, and repair cycles at scale.
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