Why Azerbaijan Is the Next Front of US-China Competition

Kamran Bokhari

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The Trump administration can build on its peace-deal momentum and push out Chinese influence in the Caucasus.

From the US geopolitical perspective, Azerbaijan represents a pivotal strategic partner in Eurasia. Having played a key role in mediating a historic peace agreement between Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia, the Trump administration must now recalibrate its broader foreign policy toward the Turkic nation to strengthen its ties with America.

Azerbaijan, the only state bordering both Russia and Iran, has emerged as a focal point of China’s deepening strategic and economic engagement. For the United States, Azerbaijan’s geoeconomic significance stems from its position as a critical energy supplier and transit hub that diversifies global routes while anchoring US access to Central Asia.

In recent months, a series of consequential developments has unfolded involving Azerbaijan and the United States’ three chief adversaries.

A day after Presidents Donald Trump and Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed the agreement establishing the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) through southern Armenia, Iranian Supreme Leader’s foreign affairs advisor Ali Akbar Velayati warned that Tehran would block any US-backed corridor in the Caucasus, deriding the TRIPP as a “graveyard for Trump’s mercenaries.”

In an August 27 interview with Al-Arabiya TV, Aliyev noted that following the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, the Azerbaijanis established the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, which lasted until April 1920, when the Soviet Union absorbed it. Over the past six months, Aliyev has visited China twice, meeting Xi Jinping on April 23 in Beijing to elevate bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership, and again on August 31 on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Tianjin.

Together, these developments reveal both promise and peril for US interests in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.

When it comes to Iran, Azerbaijan is a natural strategic partner for Washington. As a secular, Shia-majority state on Iran’s northwestern frontier, it has long opposed the Islamic Republic, though regional constraints have historically limited its effectiveness as a counterbalance.