Nour Eid
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a mutual defense pact in September stipulating that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” The announcement sparked confusion after Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Mohammad Asif suggested that the pact, which cements a long-standing relationship between the two countries, included a nuclear umbrella. Although Asif later retracted his comment, whether Pakistan has extended a nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia remains unclear.
The Pakistan-Saudi Arabia pact signals to Washington the kingdom’s discontent over flailing US security guarantees, and its willingness to use strategic ambiguity, as the need to counterbalance Israel and Iran heightens.
Increasing regional security concerns. Many media outlets depicted Israel’s missile strikes in Qatar earlier in September, which targeted Hamas political leaders, as the trigger for the pact. Israel’s blatant violation of Qatar’s sovereignty, one of the major US allies in the region, deeply rattled the Gulf monarchies, traditionally shielded from regional turbulences.
Despite being officially neutral in the war between Iran and Israel, the Gulf countries, and Qatar in particular, found themselves dragged into the conflict when Iran retaliated for US attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities by attacking the US Al Udeid Air base near Doha, although with little damage and only after giving Washington early notice. Saudi Arabia’s security was also put at risk, albeit unintentionally, in September as two Houthi ballistic missiles aimed at Israel broke apart mid-flight over Saudi territory.
While Israel’s increasing boldness and growing hegemony in the region certainly worry the Gulf monarchies, it is hard to believe that the Pakistan-Saudi pact was a direct product of the attacks on Qatari territory. An agreement of this magnitude would ordinarily take months, or even years, to negotiate. That said, the timing of the pact sends a message to the unleashed Israeli government. But most of all, it results from a mounting perception that the United States had abandoned the region, a fear that first solidified following Washington’s mild reaction to Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities in 2019.
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