What Comes Next for Israel-Hamas Ceasefire?

Mona Yacoubian and Will Todman

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On October 8, President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to the first phase of his peace deal for Gaza. He had unveiled a 20-point plan to end the war in Gaza after meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House on September 29.

If implemented, the first phase of the deal will see an initial cessation of fighting in Gaza, a partial withdrawal of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) from Gaza, the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, and a surge of humanitarian aid.

Q1: Why did Israel and Hamas agree to this now?

A1: The agreement between Israel and Hamas comes almost two years to the day after Hamas’s unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel. Two years of war have devastated Gaza, exhausted the IDF, and accelerated Israel’s international isolation.

International pressure has sharpened on Netanyahu in recent weeks. Several key Israeli allies recognized Palestinian statehood in September, global outcry over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has grown, and Netanyahu was chastened after his failed strike on Hamas officials in Doha.

Domestic pressure on Netanyahu has also grown. Opinion polls show two-thirds of Israelis now believe it is time to end the war, including most Jewish Israelis. Families of hostages also engaged in consistent advocacy for a deal, organizing large public protests. Although hardliners in Netanyahu’s government continued to resist a deal, the combination of international and domestic pressure forced Netanyahu to pursue a diplomatic path.

Hamas’s calculation changed in recent weeks. Regional states have pushed harder for Hamas to compromise, raising the cost for Hamas to reject the deal unilaterally. After two years of war, Arab states fear the repercussions of continued fighting on their own populations and sought an offramp. Eight foreign ministers of Arab and Muslim-majority states issued a joint statement welcoming President Trump’s plan. The Israeli government’s decision to launch a ground offensive into Gaza City convinced Hamas leaders to compromise. Israel’s offensive put even more military pressure on Hamas, but also risked killing or freeing the hostages, which was their last key source of leverage. Agreeing to the first phase of the deal and to release the hostages forestalls the Israeli operation in Gaza City and enhances Hamas’s standing with regional mediators when subsequent phases of the deal are negotiated.