Sara Hsu
It’s the year 2028, and the China-U.S. rivalry has hardened into a permanent conflict. The economic relationship between the United States and China remains, but has become more expensive, complex, and defined by mistrust. In the U.S., Section 301 tariffs and entity lists remain in place; in China, reciprocal tariffs, export-licensing regimes, and punishing counter-sanctions continue. Each new rule results in a mirror reaction.
Business continues to flow, but supply chain costs are higher, lead times are longer than in previous years, and firms carry more inventory due to higher risk levels. The technology industry – once a shared sphere of innovation – has split into rival ecosystems, with either side facing the constant threat of losing access to critical parts or resources from their counterpart. Beijing has mobilized massive state funding and engineering talent to narrow the technological gap. Two incompatible technology stacks arise, with diverging cloud and AI toolchains. Major global firms are required to maintain dual compliance tracks for U.S. and Chinese standards.
Military and cyber defense often default to deterrence, but there is a constant risk of an accident at sea or in the air, which could rapidly escalate conflict. Both nations continue to modernize their defense industries, including expanding their nuclear arsenals. China continues to expand its security involvement overseas, while the U.S. maintains its presence and patrolling operation in the Indo-Pacific. Cyber-espionage and gray-zone tactics are daily occurrences, as both sides search for weaknesses they could exploit in the event of ratcheting conflict.
The world of 2028 is not a world at war between the two great powers, but misunderstandings have increased the potential for a face-off. Past cooperation feels more like a faint memory, as unfavorable views between both political leaders and the populace of either nation rising to an all-time high. Neither side views the other as a friend, but as a potential outright enemy.
The world of 2028 is merely an extension of today’s rivalry, both in words and deeds. At his Senate confirmation hearing, Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio called China “the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted.” Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin has repeatedly branded U.S. conduct as “hegemonic, domineering and bullying.”
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