Jonathan Guyer, Lucas Robinson, Eloise Cassier, Ransom Miller
The Institute for Global Affairs (IGA) at Eurasia Group asked a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Americans to evaluate US foreign policy nine months into the second Trump administration. Conducted between October 6–14 during a feverish news cycle — marked by a government shutdown expected to become the longest in US history; a ceasefire in Gaza and the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners after two years of war; and the staging of American forces off the coast of Venezuela — our survey finds a fractured electorate with little consensus on America’s power and purpose.
We chose to title this report Reckless Peacemaker? because it gets at the paradoxes of Trump’s foreign policy and polarized views of him. When offered a dozen adjectives, half positive and half negative, Republicans more frequently chose the words tough, intelligent, and peacemaker. Pluralities of Democrats and independents selected destructive, erratic, and reckless to describe Trump’s leadership.
Executive Summary
President Trump’s performance on key foreign policy issues receives mixed reviews from AmericansHalf of Americans think Trump is performing poorly (50%). Many key players in his cabinet fare only a little better.
More Americans think the Trump administration is making things worse — not better — on a range of foreign policy issues, from relations with allies (-23%), America’s international standing (-22%), and immigration (-5%) to Iran’s nuclear program (-13%), the war in Ukraine (-19%), and nuclear risk (-21%). Only on the issue of international drug trafficking do more Americans think Trump is making things better than worse (+7%)
Republicans are more likely than Democrats to break with party lines — nearly a quarter of Republicans say Trump is handling US-China relations (24%) and international trade (21%) poorly — and a sizable minority of Democrats think America’s handling of drug trafficking (26%) and the Israel-Gaza conflict (21%) is no better or worse than before his return to office.
Many Americans are skeptical of Trump’s claim of being a peacemakerMost Americans believe Trump does not deserve a Nobel Peace Prize (64%), including the vast majority of Democrats (95%) and most independents (71%). Republicans hold mixed views on Trump’s merits: A slim majority say he deserves the prize (56%), while 25% disagree and 19% are unsure.
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