Gilead Sher
The Middle East has thrown out the old rulebook.
Gone are the days of rigid alliances and permanent enemies. In their place, the wealthy Gulf states — led by Saudi Arabia and Qatar — are taking a new approach: Cutting flexible, case-by-case deals to buy stability while keeping every option on the table. This is very useful: It helped end, or at least pause, the ruinous Gaza war.
Nevertheless, there are more than a few quid pro quos. A proposed sale of up to 48 cutting-edge F-35 stealth fighters to Saudi Arabia by President Trump cuts directly to the core of American foreign policy in the Middle East.
For decades, the qualitative military edge — a statutory commitment guaranteeing Israel’s technological superiority over any regional coalition — has served as the unshakeable bedrock of U.S. defense strategy.
Can Washington reconcile this massive arms deal with its strategic obligation to protect Israel’s qualitative military edge, or is this sale a direct and fundamental breach of the commitment that underpins regional stability?
June’s 12-day Iran-Israel war was a gear shifting point towards easing the region into a new way of behaving. When U.S. airstrikes hit Iran’s nuclear facilities this summer, there was great confusion about the results. One preliminary assessment suggested the strikes delayed Iran’s program by mere months; the Pentagon claimed up to two years.
That gap matters. It is why Gulf capitals are hedging their bets, refusing to choose a permanent side.
The new architecture is one of two loose, opposing alignments — Iran-China-Russia-Turkey on one side, and Saudi Arabia-United States-European Union-Egypt-Israel on the other. But critically, the Gulf states function as indispensable intermediaries.
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