Samer al-Ahmed
Syria witnessed a radical and wide-ranging transformation after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on Dec. 8, 2024. Almost immediately, questions arose as to whether Russia would be able to maintain its military bases and political influence in a post-Assad Syria; and early reports of troop evacuations and equipment withdrawals seemed to point toward a possible, if not necessarily inevitable, exit. However, six months later, the Russian military presence has remained entrenched in strategic locations such as the Hmeimim airbase and Tartous port on the coast, as well as at Qamishli airport in the northeast. This persistence has reignited an increasingly pressing debate about Moscow’s role in the new Syria: is Russia acting in good faith as a stabilizing actor, or has its presence become an instrument of pressure hobbling the political and security transition?
History and international relations theory tells us that when the governing authority of a geopolitically significant state suddenly collapses, the consequences are rarely confined to its national borders. This is precisely why Kenneth Waltz insisted, “As nature abhors a vacuum, so international politics abhors unbalanced power. Instead, this creates power vacuums and reshapes alliances, which creates a pretext for outside powers to seek to preserve or expand their influence amidst the newly emergent balance of power in the region.” And as the late Henry Kissinger argued in his writings and in interviews, when a regional order collapses, the resulting vacuum invites the intervention of external powers seeking to shape the new balance according to their interests. This theory clearly applies to the current Syrian situation, where Russia is attempting to adapt to the changes brought about by the major regime transformation and assert its position, amidst competition, to redefine the contours of power and influence in the country.
The following article discusses the dimensions of the Russian presence, particularly in Hmeimim and Qamishli, since the overthrow of the Assad regime. Moreover, the piece analyzes the repercussions of that continued Russian presence on the fragmentation of Syria’s security landscape, its implications for Western engagement with Damascus, and the positions of several major external players regarding the future of these military bases. It culminates in a strategic assessment of the role of Russia’s bases and broader influence in Syria: does the nature of the Russian presence represent an obstacle to stability or an opportunity to renegotiate regional power dynamics?
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