Lawrence Freedman
A nuclear test in the Nevada desert, 1955.
The surprise story to emerge just before Donald Trump began his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on 30 October was that the US was to resume nuclear testing. This perplexed the Chinese, who wondered if this was something to do with them, but the question was not raised when the two leaders met. It also perplexed US officials who appear to have had no warning of this announcement. And it certainly perplexed those who follow these matters as Trump’s announcement appeared to be based on a misapprehension about what other nations are doing and made little strategic or practical sense. Fred Kaplan described it as ‘pure mishmash’.
This is what Trump posted :
The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country. This was accomplished, including a complete update and renovation of existing weapons, during my First Term in office. Because of the tremendous destructive power, I HATED to do it, but had no choice! Russia is second, and China is a distant third, but will be even within 5 years. Because of other countries testing programs, I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.
As is often the case with some of Trump’s more dramatic announcements did not betray extensive staff work or fact-checking.
Every sentence is problematic. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the US, because of its substantial arsenal of short and medium-range weapons. The renovation of the US nuclear arsenal began under the Obama administration, and it was about replacement not addition. China is working hard to catch up with the US and Russia but it won’t be there by 2030. No other country is currently testing weapons. So what is meant by ‘equal basis?’ The US can’t test immediately, and if it could that would be the responsibility of the Department of Energy and not the Pentagon. Other than those issues he’s spot on.
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