Mohammed Ayoob
After less than a month, the ceasefire in Gaza is already under immense pressure. In fact, one wonders if it is already irremediable. The trio of American mediators—Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner—have not been able to restrain Israeli prime minister Netanyahu from attacking Gaza twice in the past weeks. Dozens of Palestinians have been killed in retaliation for rogue Hamas and Islamic Jihad elements’ attacks on IDF targets that have killed and injured a handful of Israeli soldiers.
Moreover, it will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to persuade Arab and Muslim countries to contribute troops to the International Stabilization Force in the present circumstances, especially if they have to fight Hamas cadres to disarm them. Therefore, the second phase of the truce, which includes the disarmament of Hamas and setting up some sort of governing authority in Gaza to replace it, already seems a non-starter. There are both short- and long-term reasons for this pessimistic conclusion.
First, it will be impossible to persuade Hamas to surrender all its arms and recede into political oblivion, which is a key Israeli demand that the United States endorses. Giving up arms would undermine its self-proclaimed raison d’être as a national resistance organization committed to fighting Israeli occupation. Hamas would be signing its death warrant if it complied. Moreover, in the unlikely event that Hamas agrees to this demand, other more radical organizations (like Palestinian Islamic Jihad) would likely emerge to replace it.
Secondly, as its recent disproportionate military response demonstrates, the Israeli government is chomping at the bit to restart its military campaign in Gaza. Netanyahu only accepted the ceasefire because of immense pressure from President Trump. A sizable number of his cabinet members oppose the ceasefire short of the complete destruction of Palestinian armed resistance and the full reoccupation of Gaza. The Israeli government will be perpetually looking for an opportunity to resume the military campaign in Gaza to achieve the maximalist ends that Netanyahu has clearly articulated at the beginning of the war. In fact, many in the government, including the military, will find this option attractive now that Hamas has released all living Israeli hostages.
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