Is the U.S. Vulnerable to a Drone Sneak Attack?

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The first ironclad battle between the Union and the Confederacy resulted in the instant obsolescence of the wooden “ship of the line.” The Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harbor demonstrated the supremacy of the aircraft carrier over the battleship. A short while ago, Ukraine’s sneak attack using pre-positioned drones marked a similar leap for gaining momentum and supremacy in battle.

Israel’s recent attack on Iran further demonstrates the unstoppable power of drones swarming from bases already within the target country. Evidence has emerged that Israel pre-positioned drones within the interior of Iran. Details are sparse, but we can hypothesize that the Israeli attack exploited a technique similar to the one recently used by the Ukrainians: hauling truck boxes disguised as commercial shipping deep into the interior of the target country near the most sensitive targets. When the agents are safely out of harm’s way, a remote signal activates the automated drones to deliver small explosive payloads with devastating precision.

The Russian nuclear-capable bombers presented a soft target to the Ukrainians; the Iranian military leadership was an even softer target for Israel. Technology exists to create killer drones with facial recognition software and AI navigation that can stealthily hunt down specific targets. When they locate the target, a charge large enough to take out that target alone explodes within point-blank range.

Unlike the advancements in ironclads, nuclear weapons, or aircraft carriers, a massive industrial effort is not required to build drones. China, Iran, Russia, and many other countries are automating drone production on a massive scale, as if the survival of their regimes depends on it. And it seems likely that warfare is changing so that regime longevity does depend on a credible drone offense and defense capability.

Iran’s pathetic counterattack, in which most of their return missiles were destroyed, further demonstrates the impotence of conventional weaponry in projecting an attack over the long-range distance separating two belligerent powers.

We’ve had similar panics before about terrorists smuggling in a “suitcase” nuclear weapon or a pathogen. If we’re to believe our Justice Department, Chinese operatives have now been caught trying to smuggle in “potential agroterrorism weapons” said to be capable of infecting the U.S. food supply.