Kashif Hasan Khan
Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear and military targets, followed by Iranian missile and drone counterattacks, have roiled the Gulf region. Amid the conflict, global energy flows and maritime security are increasingly in question, with shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most vital oil chokepoint.
With traditional shipping lanes from the Gulf in jeopardy, Gwadar Port in Pakistan is once again in focus. Gwadar has never been just a commercial node, but instead serves as a strategic safety valve in China’s long-term energy calculus.
Approximately one-fifth of global oil trade transits through the Strait of Hormuz, and its closure would ripple through the world economy. Recently, Iranian MPs made exactly this threat amid the Iran-Israel hostilities. Meanwhile, shipping disruptions are already visible. Container vessels are slowing down in the strait, a sign of anxiety among maritime operators.
Markets have responded accordingly. Oil prices rose 7-14 percent in the immediate aftermath of initial strikes, then settled marginally as no actual blockade occurred. As one analyst noted, global supply thus far has remained firm because Tehran often prefers to leverage fear rather than follow through. Yet it is often true that threats drive prices more than actions.
Iran’s capability is real. It has amassed missiles, naval mines, anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) systems, and drones – all tools that could significantly disrupt Hormuz transit. Nevertheless, closing the Strait of Hormuz would also cause economic damage to Iran itself, jeopardizing its sea-based oil exports and risking the ire of key buyers like China.
Whatever unfolds from here, this unfolding crisis adds urgency to Beijing’s push to develop alternative transit routes like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which centers on the port of Gwadar. Strategically located just outside the high-risk Gulf area but connected to China via pipelines and highways, Gwadar offers a route to bypass the congested Malacca Strait – and potentially even Hormuz, if an overland pipeline connecting Pakistan and Iran ever becomes a reality.
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