Over the past few weeks, Israel’s 20-month-old military campaign in the Gaza Strip has reached another crux point. On March 18, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) restarted the offensive, with ambitious new goals, which included targeting Hamas’s remaining civil bureaucracy as well as its fighters, and ratcheting up pressure on the organization by halting the entrance of humanitarian aid—which Hamas has weaponized to control the Gazan population and rebuild its military. Then, on May 4,
the Israeli cabinet approved a more far-reaching plan, called Operation Gideon’s Chariots, which envisions not only the total defeat of Hamas but also seizing and holding the entire strip in what could amount to indefinite military control.
Although this recent operation has only begun, it has already highlighted the dangers of the war’s relentless expansion. Of the 255 hostages seized by Hamas on October 7, 2023, 58 still remain, of whom 20 are believed to be still alive. Yet as of early June, despite a concerted U.S. push for another cease-fire deal, it remains doubtful whether negotiations for the release of the remaining hostages, let alone an end to the war, would bear fruit. Meanwhile,
the offensive has put Israel under extraordinary political, social, economic, and moral pressure. At home, the State of Israel faces looming challenges in manpower and resources; internationally, it confronts mounting criticism and condemnation, including from close allies.
From a strategic vantage point, the larger problem for Israel is the growing tension between its core security goals for the war and the government’s evolving designs for achieving them. At the heart of its stated war aims are the removal of the Hamas threat and the release of the hostages. But the protracted military campaign has been increasingly shaped by the ideological goals of the radical right parties in the cabinet, which include a permanent Israeli occupation, the rebuilding of Jewish settlements, and the establishment of full Israeli sovereignty in Gaza.
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