Russia’s strategy for challenging the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has evolved into a sophisticated hybrid-warfare doctrine that combines conventional military maneuvers in Ukraine with covert, disruptive operations across Europe’s frontlines. Moscow seeks to probe defenses, exploit ambiguity, and sow discord among allies. These campaigns encompass espionage, sabotage, cyber-warfare,
and information operations, including concerted efforts to dominate digital spaces and foment Eurosceptic, disruptive politics. Most strikingly, Russia has waged an undercover war on European communications infrastructure, from cyber-terrorism to physical sabotage of undersea fiber-optic cables in the Baltic and Arctic.
In the Arctic, Russia’s twenty-first-century geopolitical maneuvering poses a formidable challenge to NATO containment. Its Project 22220 nuclear icebreakers and expansive logistics network,
bolstered by deepening collaboration with the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—self-styled as a “near-Arctic power”—aim to secure control over the emerging Northern Sea Route—a critical artery for global trade and strategic mobility.
On the European mainland, Moscow’s influence-peddling and political subversion have achieved worrying, if uneven, success in pulling NATO members or aspirant states away from the West. Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party continues to steer the country away from the West into Russia’s orbit, particularly after the highly controversial parliamentary elections in October 2024 and the suspension of discussions on EU accession.
Romania and Moldova narrowly resisted similar pressures during their most recent elections. Meanwhile, Russia’s sway over Hungary, Slovakia, and Serbia remains firmly entrenched.
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