The Caspian Sea is becoming a site of geopolitical conflict as Russia is rapidly losing its dominance over the four other littoral states: Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan have been expanding their fleets and are now entering into security accords with each other, making them individually and collectively forces to be reckoned with by the other littoral countries and all who want to use the Caspian.
In response to increased naval expansion and cooperation among the three Turkic littoral states, Russia is expanding its Caspian naval cooperation with Iran, setting the stage for serious competition between the three Turkic countries and Moscow, allied with Tehran.
The Caspian Sea is rapidly ceasing to be a Russian lake. The other littoral countries have grown their navies and increased cooperation amongst themselves, upending the Russian Flotilla’s preeminence in the Caspian (see EDM, June 24, 2021). Over the last few years, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
and Turkmenistan have all significantly expanded their fleets. The three Turkic countries bordering the Caspian are forming more security cooperation agreements and increasing their individual and collective leverage relative to Russia. Türkiye’s backing also increases the three countries’ bargaining power vis-à-vis Russia and countries,
including the People’s Republic of China and the European Union, who want to use the Caspian for transit or development (Kaspiyskiy Vestnik, July 8 [1], [2]). In a transparent effort to recover some of its former influence, Russia announced on July 14 that it will be expanding naval cooperation with Iran (Izvestiya, July 14).
This announcement sets the stage for competition in the Caspian between the three Turkic countries and Türkiye, on the one hand, and Moscow and Tehran, on the other (see EDM, April 11, August 1, September 5, 2023).
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