Deterrence Runs on Rare Earths

Jake Kwon and Benjamin Jensen

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In the future, the United States will maintain a deep stockpile of rare earth minerals that support a ground force with larger numbers of unmanned systems and data links spread across the forward line of troops. In competition, swarms will pulse in and out of theaters, keeping adversaries off balance, denying benefits, and encouraging restraint. Deterrence will be a function not just of the lethality of this human-machine force but “combat power in being” and how adversaries assess the ability of the U.S. Army and other services to scale combat power.

The United States’ ability to deter China depends on critical minerals most Americans have never heard of. These materials have increasingly been recognized as a key economic lever of power for the United States and China. Rare earth elements are not only indispensable components of U.S. economic strength, but also of the United States’ security infrastructure. Found in everything from smartphones and laptops, they also power complex systems such as precision-guided munitions, stealth technology, and training AI models. Rare earth elements form the backbone of modern defense capabilities.

As China controls 90 percent of rare earth element processing, the United States is at an inflection point. To maintain credible deterrence against China and defend against Beijing’s ability to weaponize global defense supply chains, the United States should act quickly and reestablish a robust strategic rare earth element reserve.From 1939 to the 1980s (prior to World War II through the end of the Cold War). 

the United States maintained stockpiles of rare earth elements to create a buffer against shortages and allow for uninterrupted defense production through the Strategic and Critical Materials Stock Piling Act. With the relative global calm following the Cold War, the United States sold off its stockpiles, accepting the theory that global supply chains would support rapid scaling in times of conflict. However, the Covid-19 pandemic starkly illuminated a U.S. vulnerability, exposing critical supply chain disruptions that severely impacted the United States’ ability to procure necessary materials in a timely manner.