Throughout history, the dream of a decisive victory has often been shattered when technology surpassed doctrine. In World War I, the promise of the swift victory envisioned in Germany’s Schlieffen plan was dashed by machine guns and artillery, resulting in a stalemate that transformed the European battlefields into a maze of trench lines. Even when tanks emerged by 1916 as the potential antidote, crossing no man’s land and supporting infantry at battles such as Cambrai, without the appropriate doctrine and coordination they failed to turn tactical victories into operational breakthroughs.
Twenty-three years later, in 1939, tanks were no longer just a novelty for infantry support; when paired with close air support, they shaped decisive maneuvers and enabled breakthroughs. It was not only the machines that changed warfare, but also doctrine and organization, which allowed them to destroy large enemy formations rather than simply seize territory. This historical context is a powerful framework with which to understand the role of drones on today’s battlefields—and those of tomorrow. Drones are proving to be a devastating tool of attrition in and around the trench lines of Ukraine, but they may soon enable the next evolution in maneuver warfare.
Similar to tanks in World War I, drones have emerged as tactical novelties and delivered terrifyingly lethal—but limited—effects. And like tanks in World War II, if enhanced with the appropriate doctrine, organization, and operational concept, drones will help establish the conditions for offensive breakthrough and exploitation. Drones have already shown they can kill squads in trenches and disable vehicles, tactical actions that contribute to attrition. Attrition alone, however, even at scale, is neither quick nor affordable for most Western militaries, including that of the United States, to achieve decisive outcomes.
One alternative to this approach is dislocating and collapsing enemy formations and the critical subsystems that those formations rely on to remain combat effective. This means breaking the enemy forces’ command and control, severing their logistics, and isolating enemy units so that they are unable to regroup or reinforce critical parts of an area of operations. At the same time, friendly forces exploit these opportunities to rupture enemy defenses and destroy critical parts of enemy forces’ warfighting system faster than they can react. In this way, operational successes, if repeatable, can compound into favorable strategic outcomes.
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