Shai Feldman
Israel’s war in Gaza has reached a strategic dead end. In recent months, Israel has had phenomenal success in setting back Iran’s nuclear program by up to two years (with significant American help) and demolishing the threat posed by Hezbollah from Lebanon. By contrast, the results of Israel’s 22-month fight in Gaza are abysmal even by the stated objectives of the Israeli government. There are no signs of an imminent Hamas collapse; on the contrary, although the IDF is said to have gained control of 75 percent of Gaza’s territory, a recent INSS assessment asserts that half of Gaza’s population is currently concentrated in areas still controlled by Hamas.
Moreover, the limited success that Israel has had so far in Gaza was associated with horrific death and destruction, with Palestinian casualties (estimated by Hamas’ Ministry of Health) reaching some 60,000 dead and at least that number wounded. The magnitude of the physical damage caused is also unimaginable, with entire towns such as Rafah and Khan Junis flattened, producing scenes reminiscent of Russia’s destruction of Chechnya. By late July, numerous Western media channels reported deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Gaza, including considerable hunger.
The effect of these developments on Israel’s standing in international public opinion and the reaction of various governments to the changes in public mood—including in countries with long-standing records of supporting the Jewish state—has been devastating. This is especially the case within the European Union, some of whose members have considered suspending Israel’s participation in its flagship Horizon Europe grant program, a key source of funding for scientific research and technological innovation. In addition, by the third week of July, a growing number of European governments, led by France, have threatened to recognize Palestinian statehood unilaterally and thus unconditionally.
These developments have had two very serious negative implications for Israel’s confrontation with Hamas: First, Israel’s attempts to coerce Hamas to accept a ceasefire and hostage release deal on its terms by threatening to extract additional heavy costs from Gaza’s population have been ineffective, as Gaza seemed to have already suffered the worst. Not surprisingly, therefore, Hamas was clearly unmoved when Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, promised repeatedly that the “gates of hell” would open should the terror organisation continue to resist any deal that Israel can accept.
No comments:
Post a Comment