Sinan Ciddi
With Iran’s regional influence in steep decline, Turkey is aggressively positioning itself to fill the vacuum and assert dominance across the eastern Mediterranean and the broader Middle East. This ambition is clearly evidenced by Ankara’s rapid military buildup, its expanding engagement with African states such as Libya and Somalia, and its assertive military activity in Syria, all of which exploit Tehran’s retreat from the regional stage.
Turkey Fills the Void
These developments have alarmed key US allies—including Greece, Israel, and Cyprus—who warn that Turkey’s revisionist foreign policy directly threatens their security and sovereignty. Left unchecked, Ankara’s expansionist agenda may not only destabilize the region but could also entangle Europe and the United States in a broader conflict. As one analyst starkly observed, “Turkey may be the new Iran.”
Ankara’s recent diplomatic overtures in Africa illustrate a worrisome trend. In 2019, Turkey intervened in Libya’s civil war on behalf of the Tripoli-based government of Fayez al-Sarraj, providing weapons and deploying troops to help secure his regime. In return, al-Sarraj agreed to a maritime boundary deal that vastly expanded Turkey’s territorial claims in the Mediterranean—claims that directly challenge the internationally recognized maritime boundaries of Greece.
The agreement, roundly rejected by the European Union and regional powers like Egypt, served as a preview of Ankara’s ambitions. Now, Turkey is courting Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, head of the rival Libyan National Army in the country’s east—despite having previously backed his adversary. By hosting Haftar in Ankara in July, Turkish officials are banking on securing a similar maritime agreement with Libya’s eastern government. They are also counting on the EU to acquiesce, hoping Brussels will prioritize Turkish cooperation in curbing African migration to Europe over safeguarding Greek sovereignty.
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