Jianli Yang
When Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in Alaska this Friday to discuss “ending” the war in Ukraine, Beijing will carefully study every handshake, phrase, and subtle signal that emerges from the talks. For China, such a meeting is not primarily about the performance of peace diplomacy. Rather, it is about the deeper structure of global order that could emerge afterward and especially whether the outcome will help lock in a Eurasian balance of power favorable to Beijing’s strategic ambitions. Alternatively, an agreement could bind China into a new set of constraints on sanctions enforcement and technology controls, as well as its relationships with key European states.
Since February 2022, Xi Jinping has walked a narrow political and diplomatic ridge, publicly professing “neutrality” and respect for sovereignty while actively providing Russia with material and technological support. At the same time, Beijing has strengthened what it calls a “no limits” partnership with Moscow.
A US-Russia bargain that effectively freezes the frontlines and normalizes some of Russia’s gains would, in most respects, suit Beijing. It would preserve a strategic partner in Eurasia and avoid an outcome in which Moscow is weakened to the point of dependency on the West. Conversely, a deal that ties any ceasefire to tough, enforceable restrictions on Chinese dual-use exports to Russia would be unwelcome. This is why the choreography of the Alaska meeting—who initiates, who concedes, and what details are left vague—matters as much as the headlines.
Beijing’s conduct since the start of the war has been guided by three interlocking imperatives. The first is to ensure Russia’s survival as a functioning strategic actor. Moscow remains China’s only peer-level counterweight to Washington across the Eurasian landmass. It is also a vital supplier of discounted energy and raw materials, and a partner in constructing alternatives to a US-centric order.
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