Masoud Zamani
The 12-day war between Israel and Iran may have paused—but the next round of violence is already taking shape. As of writing this piece, the 12-day war has been halted by a fragile ceasefire—one that could collapse at any moment. While the possibility of renewed hostilities is high, the more pressing question is whether the 12-day war was predictable and whether the continuation of the conflict can be anticipated based on underlying realities.
This is where game theory can help us assess how likely the emergence of a new round of hostilities may be. International relations is often seen as a domain of uncertainty and vagueness, but in this cloudy landscape, game theory can provide a faint light of determinacy. And that determinacy matters. Understanding escalation probabilities is not an academic exercise; it is essential for policymakers and regional actors deciding whether to intervene, mediate, or prepare for the next round of conflict. But first, some context.
An Old Conflict, Deep Ideological Roots
The military tension and hostile interaction between the Islamic Republic and Israel is not a new phenomenon. It began the moment the 1979 Iranian Revolution upended the Middle East. From its inception, the Islamic Republic’s revolutionary identity was steeped in anti-Israel sentiment. Khomeini repeatedly called Israel a “cancerous tumor” that had to be removed, and his successor, Khamenei, elevated the rhetoric further, predicting that ‘there will be nothing called Israel in 25 years.’
This ideological hostility was not merely rhetorical. It has been consistently operationalized through three official policies:Building a regional network of armed proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Iraqi Shiite militias, the Houthis),
Developing a clandestine nuclear program,
Expanding a sophisticated ballistic missile arsenal.
For Israel—a small country with bitter historical experience, a deep memory of the Holocaust, and a low tolerance for existential threats—these ideological declarations, coupled with military capability, are not something to dismiss as hollow gestures.
Game Theory and the Logic of Escalation
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