Stephen Blank
Key Points and Summary – Russia sent 19 drones from Belarus into Polish airspace, loitering for seven hours before one crashed and three were shot down.
-Beyond a scare, the incursion exposes NATO’s thin air-and-drone defenses, sluggish command-and-control, and intelligence blind spots.
Lancet Drone from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-Moscow likely treated the raid as razvedka—recon in force—to test readiness and warn against allied ‘peace force’ ideas.
-It also highlights Belarus’s de facto subordination to Moscow and nuclear hosting. Critics argue talk of sanctions and summits won’t deter Putin; only steady arms for Ukraine, real secondary sanctions, and rapid rearmament can restore credible deterrence. Absent action, further probes and escalation are likely.
19 Drones, 7 Hours: What Russia Just Learned About NATO
On Sept. 9-10, Russia dispatched 19 drones from Belarus into Polish air space, where the drones loitered for seven hours before one crashed into a house and NATO air defenses shot down three others.
These are the facts that we know, but there are more aspects to this story that we can discuss here. First, the episode reveals just how unready NATO is to defend its member-states and their territory, let alone to deter Russian attacks.
This is not solely due to the absence of a viable integrated air defense and anti-drone network, although that is a factor. This attack – for an attack by Russia is what this was – also revealed huge gaps in NATO intelligence, reconnaissance, and command-and-control capabilities. These drones were in Polish air space for seven hours before their mission was forcibly terminated, and only three of the 19 drones were shot down. Thus, for all the talk of improving defenses, and all the acknowledgment of the threat that Russia might be planning a war against alliance members, NATO remained asleep at the wheel.
Russia Is Probing and Measuring Readiness
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