Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Defense Agreement Tests India’s Gulf Balancing Act

Rushali Saha

Source Link

On September 17, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed the Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) during the latter’s visit to Riyadh.

“Any aggression against either country shall be considered an act of aggression against both,” the landmark agreement states.

New Delhi’s official response has been measured. It “was aware” of this “development which formalizes a long-standing arrangement between the two countries,” India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said. When asked about the Pakistani-Saudi pact at the ministry’s weekly media briefing, spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal spoke of India’s expectation that Saudi Arabia “will keep in mind mutual interests and sensitivities.”

When Pakistani media asked Defense Minister Khwaja Asif whether Saudi Arabia would get involved if India and Pakistan went to war, he replied in the affirmative, without mentioning India directly.

Despite Islamabad’s ambitious expectations, it is highly unlikely that Saudi Arabia would involve itself militarily in the event of an India-Pakistan conflict.

Very few details about the pact’s contents have been revealed so far. But placing it in context helps clarify what it provides for — and, more crucially, what it does not.

First, the timing of the agreement, just days after Israel bombed Qatar, is not a mere coincidence. While it may have been in the making for a long time­, as Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar alluded to, the signing was definitely accelerated by Israel’s military targeting of Qatar, which has thrown West Asia into turmoil. For the Saudis, the strategic imperative of formalizing a long-standing strategic relationship with an Islamic country was likely aimed at sending a political signal of solidarity to Israel, rather than getting entangled in Islamabad’s long-standing bilateral disputes. This explains why officials in Riyadh have been careful to portray the deal as a natural evolution of long-standing ties.