Tushar Shetty
South Asia expert Michael Kugelman discusses the dramatic shifts in US relations with India and Pakistan, examining trade wars, diplomatic tensions, and the changing geopolitical landscape under the second Trump administration.
This transcript is based on an interview done for Beyond the Indus, The Diplomat’s South Asia-focused podcast.
Pakistan’s Diplomatic Comeback
Tushar: Michael, it’s been incredibly busy in South Asian politics lately. I’d like to start with Pakistan and the United States. The comeback that Pakistan has made in its relationship with the United States is remarkable. Trump earlier singled out Pakistan for double dealing during the war on terror, but Pakistan has now secured a favorable 19% tariff rate and multi-billion dollar trade deals. How did Pakistan achieve this? What did its negotiators promise in DC, and how realistic are these commitments for multi-billion dollar oil and minerals deals, especially with China being a big player in that region?
Michael Kugelman: It really is extraordinary. The US-Pakistan relationship has had its ups and downs, so in principle, one should not necessarily have ruled out some type of improvement in ties. Since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, the trajectory of US-Pakistan ties had been pretty negative. But because it’s been a roller coaster, why not think that things could get better?
However, one would not have expected things to get better at all. One main reason is, as you noted, President Trump himself, as well as other senior officials in this administration, have been very hard on Pakistan. They’ve been harsh critics of Pakistan in the past. Also, some of the few issues that formed the pillars of cooperation during the Biden years—things like climate change and clean energy development cooperation—would clearly not be priorities for the Trump administration, especially after it suspended most foreign assistance and dismantled USAID. Those were big components of the US-Pakistan relationship.
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