Richard M. Harrison & Peter A. Garretson
Sixty-eight years ago, the Soviet Union shocked the world by launching Sputnik 1 and igniting the space race. Today, new Sputnik moments loom on the horizon, and the stakes are far higher. The country that emerges as a preeminent space power will guarantee its own economic and national security, and shape the “rules of the road” that govern the international community for decades to come.
Who will that be? In the absence of strong leadership on space, China is poised to surpass the United States. That the federal government was shut down during Space Week (which ran from Oct. 4-10) is symbolic of a rudderless American space strategy. Meanwhile, over the past six months, China began deploying an AI “supercomputing” satellite constellation and, together with Russia, unveiled plans to construct a Lunar nuclear power plant to support their planned International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). Beijing, in other words, has a clear vision for space and is executing it.
Dr. Namrata Goswami, a leading China space analyst, has eloquently outlined how the Chinese Communist Party’s strategic prioritization of reusable rockets, orbital logistics, and Lunar industrialization may allow the PRC to outpace America in space before too long.
These factors matter. Reusable rockets are the principal reason why the U.S. remains the leader in space launch. But that advantage may be slipping. Today, SpaceX, the private corporation of billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, out-launches not only every other company in the space economy, but every country as well. That volume is a double-edged sword; now that the U.S. has effectively lowered the barrier for entry into the space market, some analysts warn that America has only a handful of years before China matches this output.
Indeed, signs of this are already emerging. Over the last five years, Beijing has demonstrated in-space refueling, tested a fractional orbital bombardment system, and launched its own crewed space station. Moreover, China has also landed and returned samples from the far side of the Moon—a feat that the U.S. has never accomplished.
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