Stephen Bryen
USS Barry launching a Tomahawk missile. Photo: by US Navy / Interior Communications Electrician Fireman Roderick Eubanks / Wikimedia Commons
US President Donald Trump, in the midst of his triumph ending the Gaza war and gaining the return of the Israeli hostages, is jacking up the pressure on Russia. The major threat, but not the only one, is the threat to deliver Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine that would be used to target assets inside Russia.
Russia has not won the war on the ground in Ukraine. Even without the Tomahawk, Russia will experience heavy losses to Ukrainian drones aimed at Russia’s energy infrastructure and military industries. Ukrainian raids on Russia happen nearly every night, just as Russian raids on Ukraine appear fairly persistent.
Russia has limited financial ability to replace its losses, and shutdowns of power and equipment losses do not play well with the public.
In effect, Ukraine has retaliated fairly effectively for heavy Russian raids on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, and so far at least Ukraine has been able to manage such losses or at least persist through them.
Russian Emergency Situation Ministry’s firefighters work at the scene of a fire at the Novoshakhtinsk oil processing plant in the Rostov region. Photo: Russian Emergency Ministry Press Service.
Nonetheless there are limits to everything. How long can Ukraine sustain mounting losses, and how much reverse punishment can Russia take in pursuit of its goals in Ukraine? There are no answers to these questions, or to the question of how long the war itself will continue.
The modern battlefield has changed significantly. Drones and precision weapons, along with aerial-dropped mines, have made armored assaults nearly a thing of the past. Some say that the life of a main battle tank is a mere 72 hours, meaning that hardware will be rapidly destroyed and experienced crews are few and far between.
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