Andrew Latham
President Donald Trump delivers the Commencement address at the graduation ceremony for the University of Alabama, Thursday, May 1, 2025, at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
-The initial success was a simple transaction. The hard part is disarming Hamas, a condition the group has already rejected.
-The plan is vulnerable to three key “spoilers”: Hamas seeking to retain power, the Israeli far-right working to block a Palestinian state, and Iran seeking to re-arm its proxies. Without strict, daily, and intrusive international enforcement with real consequences, the peace process will likely collapse.
Gaza Peace? Here Comes the Tough Part
The current Israeli–Hamas ceasefire plan is a roadmap, and a fairly simple one at that. It comprises 20 steps that can be divided into three phases: first, hostage–prisoner swaps and cessation of hostilities, then on to disarming Hamas, then reconstructing both the institutions of governance and the physical infrastructure of Gaza.
Phase one is proceeding relatively smoothly, largely because it is a re-run of hostage-prisoner exchanges past. The next two phases, however, will not be so smooth. Indeed, if the past is indeed prologue, the entire peace process is likely to come crashing to a halt long before Phase 2 is complete.
Why Phase One Worked
The opening phase worked because it was both built on prior experience and served both party’s interests. It was, in a word, transactional – a mutually beneficial exchange of 20 living Israeli hostages on the one hand for roughly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and the resumption of aid on the other.
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