Rahul Oberoi
At the India Today Conclave in Mumbai, three of the country’s top economists including Tanvee Gupta Jain of UBS, Sajid Z Chinoy of JP Morgan, and Samiran Chakraborty of Citibank sounded a cautious note on the country’s growth prospects amid rising US tariffs and a shifting global trade order.
Tanvee Gupta Jain, Chief India Economist at UBS, highlighted the impact of steep penalties on India’s exports. “A 50% penalty, which includes 25% reciprocal tariff and 25% penalty for buying military equipment from Russia, is one of the highest across emerging markets,” she said.
According to Jain, nearly $35 billion worth of Indian goods are exposed, equal to about 0.8% of GDP. The pain is most acute in low-margin, labour-intensive sectors like gems and jewellery, textiles, leather, and footwear, which employ over 10 million workers.
“We do see a GDP growth drag because of these higher tariffs. Despite this, India is still projected to grow at 6.7% in FY26,” she noted, while stressing the need to boost domestic demand.
Sajid Z Chinoy, Managing Director and Chief India Economist, JP Morgan, cautioned against retaliatory measures. “From a narrow economic perspective, very simple answer, no. We have much more to lose from retaliation and escalation,” he said. He highlighted the importance of service exports, which account for 7% of GDP compared with just 1% from goods exports to the US.
“That’s the epicentre of urban consumption, white-collar jobs, and housing. We must negotiate in good faith and, in the near term, provide a bridge to keep enterprises alive. Just as we did during Covid with targeted fiscal and credit support,” he added.
Samiran Chakraborty, Chief Economist at Citibank India, echoed the urgency of quick policy action but urged a broader rethink. “It’s important that we arrest this as quickly as possible, but we also need to recognise that the world is becoming more protectionist. We can no longer build our future growth narrative purely on exports,” he said.
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