Daisuke Akimoto
The presidential election race within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to choose a successor to outgoing Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru kicked off on September 22. This time, there are five candidates for the LDP presidency: former Economic Security Minister Takaichi Sanae, 64; Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Minister Koizumi Shinjiro, 44; former LDP Secretary General Motegi Toshimitsu, 69; Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi Yoshimasa, 64; and former Economic Security Minister Kobayashi Takayuki, 50.
Among them, Takaichi is the only female candidate, and she’s considered one of the frontrunners. A poll conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun on September 13-14 showed Takaichi on top with 29 percent support, followed by Koizumi with 25 percent, Motegi with 7 percent, Hayashi with 6 percent, and Kobayashi with 3 percent. Another opinion poll taken on September 18 by Jiji Press showed that Koizumi was the most favored, followed by Takaichi. Therefore, many Japanese analysts see the contest as a two-way race between Takaichi and Koizumi.
If Takaichi wins the LDP leadership election, she will presumably become Japan’s first female prime minister. Based on her policy preferences, what would a Takaichi government mean for Japan’s economic, foreign, and security policy, especially Japan-U.S. relations?
Takaichi’s popularity among LDP supporters stems from the fact that she is an experienced conservative politician and a direct protege of the late Prime Minister Abe Shinzo, the conservative’s icon. She first ran for the LDP presidency in 2021. Last year, Takaichi was narrowly defeated by Ishiba; this year’s race marks her third bid for the presidency.
In the upper house elections in July 2025, some conservative voters in Japan supported not the LDP but other right-wing parties, such as Sanseito and the Conservative Party of Japan. In particular, Sanseito increased its seats in the Diet using its nationalistic “Japanese First” platform. Takaichi’s conservative political stance could appeal to conventional conservative voters in Japan, and the LDP might be able to regain their support.
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