Why the West Is Split Over Political Islam

Pierre Rehov

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Trump's executive order represents the most serious American effort in decades to confront Islamist political networks that, in Washington, had long been considered merely political differences rather than lethal security threats.

Across the Atlantic... in the European Union and many of its major capitals, political Islam — often embodied by Muslim Brotherhood-linked organizations — remains part of an approach for a larger "dialogue with Islamists". Can you imagine a "dialogue with Bolsheviks" or a "dialogue with the Third Reich"?

Analysis: Coal power drops in China and India for first time in 52 years after clean-energy records

Lauri Myllyvirta.

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Coal power generation fell in both China and India in 2025, the first simultaneous drop in half a century, after each nation added record amounts of clean energy.

The new analysis for Carbon Brief shows that electricity generation from coal in India fell by 3.0% year-on-year (57 terawatt hours, TWh) and in China by 1.6% (58TWh).

The last time both countries registered a drop in coal power output was in 1973.

The fall in 2025 is a sign of things to come, as both countries added a record amount of new clean-power generation last year, which was more than sufficient to meet rising demand.

Could China execute a special forces operation like the US precision Maduro abduction?

Liu ZhenandZhao Ziwen

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The extreme precision of the US in its Venezuelan operation shows why nations must be able to execute a complex special surgical strike, according to analysts who said China had long pursued the capability but had yet to master it.

In a complex joint endeavour integrating its air force, navy, intelligence agencies and space and cyber units, the US military’s elite Delta Force special mission unit completed its precision raid in Caracas – from infiltration to exfiltration – in less than three hours, abducting Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife and taking them to the US.

As Trump threatens Iran strikes, China denounces use of force in Middle East Beijing calls for ‘peace and stability’ in the region amid escalating protests in Iran

Dewey Sim

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China has voiced opposition to the use of force in the Middle East as US President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran over escalating protests there. Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning on Monday said Beijing hoped Iran’s government and its people would overcome “current difficulties” and uphold stability in the country. “We always oppose interference in other countries’ internal affairs,” she said at a press conference, responding to a question about Trump’s threats to attack Iran.

“The sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected and [we] oppose the use or threat of force in international relations. We call on parties to act in ways conducive to peace and stability in the Middle East.” Hundreds of protesters and security officers dead as Iran steps up efforts to quell unrest

Iran’s Protests and the Internet Blackout That Followed

Mariel Ferragamo

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After nationwide protests broke out in December against the Iranian government, the regime decided it would try to quash the turmoil by leaving Iranians—quite literally—in the dark.

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Iran’s authoritarian regime cut internet and phone services in response to nearly two weeks of antigovernment demonstrations that have overtaken the country. The blackout left Iranians without the ability to obtain vital information, such as safety warnings and the whereabouts of their family members. It also attempted to obscure the picture inside Iran from global onlookers.

Lyse Doucet: Iran's rulers face biggest challenge since 1979 revolution

Lyse Doucet

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Iran's rulers are confronting their most serious challenge since their own 1979 revolution.

They're now countering on an unprecedented scale - a ferocious security crackdown and near total internet shutdown has been unleashed on a scale unseen in previous crises. Some of the streets once engulfed by a roar of anger against the regime are now starting to go silent.

"On Friday it was extremely crowded - the crowd was unbelievable - and there was a lot of shooting. Then Saturday night it became much, much quieter," a resident of Tehran told BBC Persian. "You would have to have a death wish to go out now," one Iranian journalist reflected. This time, an internal upheaval is also compounded by an external threat, with President Trump's repeated warnings of military action coming seven months after the US carried out strikes on key nuclear facilities during a 12-day war between Iran and Israel, which left the regime weakened.

Increasing Venezuela’s Oil Output Will Take Several Years—and Billions of Dollars

Brad W. Setser

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In the days since U.S. President Donald Trump’s operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, his administration has made clear it wants to control the South American country’s oil production.

Venezuela’s oil production has long been hampered by both Venezuela’s mismanagement of its oil fields and U.S. sanctions. With Maduro in U.S. custody and his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, acting as interim president, Trump’s team has said that they aim to revitalize the country’s oil sector. Following the Saturday raid on Caracas, Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced that the United States intends to oversee Venezuelan oil sales “indefinitely,” and Trump said U.S. oil firms are “ready” to reenter the country. In the meantime, Venezuela’s government has said it will transfer between 30 and 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States.

G7, other allies discuss ways to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earths

Maria Martinez and Kanishka Singh

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Item 1 of 2 U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks during a press conference to unveil the official Trump Accounts website, at the Treasury Department in Washington, D.C., U.S., December 17, 2025. REUTERS/Aaron Schwartz

[1/2]U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks during a press conference to unveil the official Trump Accounts website, at the Treasury Department in Washington, D.C., U.S., December 17, 2025. REUTERS/Aaron Schwartz Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

Summary

G7, Australia, Mexico, South Korea, India meet on rare earths in Washington

Finance chiefs see 'broad agreement' to cut reliance on Chinese critical minerals

Price floor for rare earths, new supply partnerships discussed at U.S. Treasury

WASHINGTON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Finance ministers from the G7 and other major economies met in Washington on Monday to discuss ways to reduce dependence on rare earths from China, including setting a price floor and new partnerships to build up alternative supplies, ministers said.

Pentagon bought device through undercover operation some investigators suspect is linked to Havana Syndrome

Katie Bo Lillis, Natasha Bertrand, Priscilla Alvarez, Jim Sciutto, Zachary Cohen

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The US flag flutters at the Pentagon on September 19, 2025. Daniel Becerril/Reuters/File

The Defense Department has spent more than a year testing a device purchased in an undercover operation that some investigators think could be the cause of a series of mysterious ailments impacting US spies, diplomats and troops that are colloquially known as Havana Syndrome, according to four sources briefed on the matter.

A division of the Department of Homeland Security, Homeland Security Investigations, purchased the device for millions of dollars in the waning days of the Biden administration, using funding provided by the Defense Department, according to two of the sources. Officials paid “eight figures” for the device, these people said, declining to offer a more specific number.

Strategic Snapshot: Russia–PRC Technology and Hybrid Operations

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Strategic Snapshot: Russia–PRC Technology and Hybrid Operations

Technological innovation is reshaping the modern battlefield. Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are combining conventional warfare with electromagnetic disruption, cyber attacks, digital influence campaigns, and unmanned and autonomous systems to target U.S. partners and allies. The frontline states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are under mounting pressure from these new technological threats. Russian violations of Polish, Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, and Romanian airspace, as well as GPS spoofing and sabotage of critical undersea infrastructure, particularly fiber-optic cables, in the Baltic and Arctic regions, illustrate the expanding scope of targeting technology and its use for subversive means. These activities reflect a broader shift toward multi-domain warfare, where ambiguity and deniability are key assets.

Drone warfare is now a central feature of this evolving technological domain. Ukraine has become a world-leading drone producer and pioneer of maritime and autonomous systems since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022. The PRC has also recently unveiled new unmanned systems capabilities for use in a Taiwan contingency, signaling its intent to operationalize lessons from Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Trump and the Fed Are Now at War

Keith Johnson

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The skirmishing between U.S. President Donald Trump and the U.S. Federal Reserve has broken into outright war, with potentially huge implications for the independence of the world’s most important central bank, the U.S. dollar, and America’s financial credibility in the future.

On Friday, the U.S. Justice Department issued subpoenas to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, a Trump appointee who has spent much of his term under fire for not acquiescing to the president’s desire to turbocharge the economy through loose monetary policy.

How to get people believing in the state again

Sam Freedman

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I broke my shoulder after slipping on ice last week, so this is my first attempt at writing an article via dictation and editing (don’t worry it’s not another piece about my A&E experiences). It’s quite a different mental process but hopefully the end product is fairly similar.

Have you tried getting a passport or driving licence renewed recently? It’s incredibly easy and nearly always arrives in a few days. This is a relatively new phenomenon. In 2022 the passport office was in crisis, and all over the front pages, as it was overwhelmed by post-covid applications. But with the implementation of a new digital process it now works so well that it’s being copied by multiple other countries.

How Greenland Falls

Jeremy Shapiro

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What follows is a work of speculative fiction. Any resemblances to actual future events are purely coincidental. This scenario is plausible, but certainly not inevitable. It is offered in the modest hope that it will inspire and inform efforts to prevent the disastrous outcome described here.

It is January 2028. Looking back, the Americans did not “take” Greenland—not in any concrete sense. There was no invasion, no purchase, not even a plebiscite. But in the shadowy corridors of Arctic politics, Washington moved deliberately to confound its opponents. The Americanization of Greenland transcended brute imperial force in the Russian mold.

Cognitive Warfare and the Indo-Pacific

Jon Reisher 

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Editor’s Note: This article was submitted as part of the Irregular Warfare Initiative’s 2025 Writing Contest, in which authors were invited to explore how the United States and its partners can use irregular warfare to strengthen security cooperation, build trust, and enhance resilience among Indo-Pacific nations. This article stood out for its innovative framing of cognitive warfare as a tool of deterrence and alliance-building, and for its practical recommendations on how small Indo-Pacific nations can leverage information operations to uphold international norms. We have edited the piece after its selection.

“Psychologically, the PRC is trying to cause mental disarray and confusion, in order to weaken fighting will and determination to defend ourselves.”

The balance of the modern global information environment has become algorithmically biased, with social media platforms tailoring content to users’ preferences and reinforcing their pre-existing beliefs. By isolating users in personalized filter bubbles, these algorithms amplify confirmation bias and cultivate increasingly polarized online echo chambers, distorting users’ perceptions of reality and fueling societal division—conditions the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has learned to weaponize.

Venezuelan and Cuban Military: A Comparative Analysis and Potential U.S. Operation in Cuba

Ernesto Alvarez

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On January 3, 2026, the United States launched "Absolute Resolve," a lightning-fast operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro in under three hours. This historical event highlighted the stark contrast between the theoretical military capabilities of Venezuela and its actual combat readiness. For Cuba, which closely monitored Venezuela's swift downfall and suffered the loss of 32 intelligence officers in Caracas, a pressing question arises: how would a similar operation unfold in Cuba?

This article thoroughly examines the military capabilities of Venezuela (prior to January 3) and Cuba (as of January 2026). It reviews air defenses, aviation, armored vehicles, ground forces, and, importantly, the geographic and structural differences that would influence the outcome of a hypothetical U.S. operation targeting Havana.

Venezuelan Military Before January 3, 2026

Donald Trump’s Red Line

Eli Lake

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Ever since the mass demonstrations began in Iran two weeks ago, President Donald Trump has offered more than just moral support. He has promised to attack the regime if it started killing protesters. It’s now time for Trump to make good on his promise.

On January 8, Iran’s regime shut down the internet and has used the occasion to turn the streets of its cities into abattoirs. According to Iran International, a London-based news outlet, an estimated 2,000 protesters have been slain in the past three days by the regime’s security forces. Precise figures are nearly impossible to obtain because of the digital blackout. But Iran International has obtained videos from hospitals that show mounting corpses from the shooting of citizens in the streets.

The Problem with Trump’s Venezuela Plan

Elliott Abrams

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A week after the spectacular raid that captured Nicolás Maduro, little else has changed in Caracas and the action is in Washington.

In Caracas, the regime remains fully in charge. While there are concessions—some real, some merely rhetorical—for the Americans, none of them compromise the plenary power of the gang that has ruled under Chávez and Maduro. The ministers of defense and interior, both indicted drug traffickers, remain in place. Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as interim president by her brother Jorge, who heads the National Assembly. Chavista gangs are still used to prevent or punish demonstrations. As of Saturday, just 16 of the country’s 800 political prisoners had been released.

Opinion | Forget Venezuela and Greenland – here is the real trillion-dollar question

Chow Chung-yan

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The year 2024 will be remembered as the first time in history that a national government’s interest payments on its debt exceeded US$1 trillion, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis.

Despite US President Donald Trump’s pledge to cut federal spending and his aggressive global trade war, the United States is now adding US$1 trillion in national debt every 71 days – up from every 150 days in 2024, according to the US Congress Joint Economic Committee. This pace marks the fastest peacetime accumulation of national debt in history, with no sign of slowing soon.

The Perception War over Venezuela

Ellie Munshi

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This EdgeTheory report synthesizes geospatial narrative mapping, narrative attribution, and emotion and network analysis surrounding the U.S. military capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. The brief focuses on coordinated Russian and Chinese information operations that frame the action as illegal aggression and resource-driven imperialism while positioning Moscow and Beijing as defenders of sovereignty and international law. 

Drawing from multi-platform collection streams, including state media, social media actors, RSS feeds, and X posts, this assessment maps how narratives of U.S. illegitimacy, neocolonialism, and the collapse of the rules-based order propagate across the global information environment. Using EdgeTheory’s narrative classification and amplification tools, the report traces how state-aligned, proxy, and influence-for-hire networks organize, interact, and reinforce emotionally charged messaging, providing a layered view of how adversarial information power seeks to undermine U.S. credibility, fracture allied cohesion, and normalize a sphere-of-influence model of global order.

Russia’s Fearsome Arsenal Fizzled in Venezuela. Here’s Why.

Maria Abi-Habib, Eric SchmittChristiaan, Triebert and Julian E. Barnes

Source Linik

The Venezuelan regime had high-powered air defense systems from its allies in the Kremlin, but failed to set much of it up. A destroyed Buk launcher at La Carlota air base in Caracas after the U.S. strikes.Credit...The New York Times The Venezuelan regime had high-powered air defense systems from its allies in the Kremlin, but failed to set much of it up.

A destroyed Buk launcher at La Carlota air base in Caracas after the U.S. strikes.Credit...The New York Times Venezuela’s advanced, Russian-made air defense systems were not even hooked up to radar when U.S. helicopters swooped in to snatch President Nicolás Maduro, American officials say, rendering Venezuelan airspace surprisingly unprotected long before the Pentagon launched its attack.

Once More, the Sensor

Daniel Ross

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His faded, crusty green beret remained crumpled up in his right pocket. He had little use for it now, but it always remained there, just as it had in the old days. The same U.S. Army Special Forces flash and insignia from the first conflict adorned the front of the once coveted hat, sun-bleached, like the hazy memories from barely recognizable operational times. “De Oppresso Liber,” he remembered, “free the oppressed…. look what that got us with the Second Ukraine War. Now, we all need freedom.”

He always knew time would kill him—and all of us, really—just not this slowly and methodically. Not old age, though, maybe death in combat—a glory that only mattered if civilizations—or at least your buddies—survived to remember you. But a stupid clock? Quantum this or that, they said. “Incessant progress always somehow plunges us backward,” he supposed. Time seemed relevant when humans knew it could not be controlled. Once the clock became the master, everything changed. In the quest for complete control, a failed attempt to cause global nuclear impotence, all the power-hungry became the gods of absolute nothingness.

War Department Launches AI Acceleration Strategy to Secure American Military AI Dominance

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The Department of War today launches a transformative Artificial Intelligence Acceleration Strategy that will extend our lead in military AI deployment and establish the United States as the world's undisputed AI-enabled fighting force. Mandated by President Trump, this acceleration strategy will unleash experimentation, eliminate legacy bureaucratic blockers, and integrate the bleeding edge of frontier AI capabilities across every mission area to usher in an unprecedented era of American military AI dominance.

"We will unleash experimentation, eliminate bureaucratic barriers, focus our investments and demonstrate the execution approach needed to ensure we lead in military AI," said Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. "We will become an 'AI-first' warfighting force across all domains."

How 2026 Could Decide the Future of Artificial Intelligence

Chris McGuire, Kat Duffy, Vinh Nguyen, Michael C. Horowitz, Adam Segal, and Jessica Brandt

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Artificial intelligence (AI) is entering a decisive phase—one defined less by speculative breakthroughs than by the hard realities of governance, adoption, and strategic competition. As AI systems move from experimentation to widespread deployment, policymakers face mounting pressure to translate abstract principles into enforceable rules, while managing the economic and security consequences of uneven adoption across countries and sectors. For the United States and its partners, the challenge is no longer whether AI will reshape society but how and under whose rules.

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In this collection of perspectives, six Council on Foreign Relations tech fellows examine the forces that will shape AI’s trajectory in 2026. Together, they explore the frictions between regulation and innovation, the quiet but consequential spread of AI across civilian and military institutions, and the intensifying geopolitical contest—particularly with China—over standards, markets, and strategic advantage. Their analyses underscore a common theme: Decisions made in the coming year will help determine where responsibility, power, and opportunity ultimately concentrate in the AI era.

AI Adoption Journey for Population Scale

Shalini Kapoor and Tanvi Lall

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This program focuses on five sets of imperatives: data, strategic technologies, emerging technologies, digital public infrastructure, and strategic partnerships.Learn More

A government department pilots an AI assistant for citizen service requests. It can triage applications, draft responses, and translate queries across languages. The pilot looks like a leap in efficiency. A month later, staff still follow the old process in parallel, supervisors are nervous about accountability, and the “new system” is a side screen that nobody trusts.

This is the most common AI story today—a failure of adoption, not the model.

The warning signs are visible in the data. Gartner expects a meaningful share of generative AI projects to be abandoned after proof of concept, citing poor data quality, inadequate risk controls, escalating costs, and unclear business value. IDC research, as reported by CIO.com, similarly finds that most AI proofs of concept do not reach widespread deployment.