Hal Brands
Of Introduction Lessons from the New Cold War Hal Brands f all the crises, conflicts, and uncertainties of our moment, it is the rivalry between America and China—the New Cold War—that will most fundamentally shape the present age.1 That contest is a battle, in the shadowy space between war and peace, between the world’s greatest powers. Its outcome will shape the international system, and the fate of humanity, for many years to come. In the best case, this struggle is likely to be long, tense, and littered with nasty perils. In the worst case, it could cause history’s most cataclysmic military showdown. Successfully waging, and winning, that competition will be the defining strategic challenge of our time. Beijing knows this: For decades, it has been striving to displace America as the preeminent power in Asia and, ultimately, the world. As Xi Jinping himself has argued, China is “building a socialism that is superior to capitalism” and charging into a “future where we will win the initiative and have the dominant position.”
In the most recent decade, the United States has begun to meet that growing threat. Two presidents, from different political parties, have identified China as the foremost danger to America’s security, prosperity, and global influence. America’s military, its economy, and parts of its government have already been remade by the demands of competition with Beijing; over time, that rivalry could come to suffuse so many aspects of our lives. In a polarized, bitterly divided country, anti China measures are among the few things that still command bipartisan support.3 But are those measures effective? Is America winning the New Cold War? It can be hard enough to tell who is winning a hot war, amid the chaos and carnage of combat. It is harder still in cold wars, where success is often incremental and victories may be measured in hidden intelligence coups, subtle shifts in diplomatic loyalties, or influence over key supply chains, rather than territory won on the battlefield.
Yet assessing progress is crucial to knowing whether America has the right strategy. Winning this contest requires learning its lessons so far. This was the goal of a conference I hosted at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in April 2025.4 There are few better places for such a gathering. Johns Hopkins has had a campus in China since the 1980s: It has experienced the ups and downs of the relationship firsthand. The current dean of SAIS, James Steinberg, is one of America’s most respected China hands. A group of experts who attended the conference probed key aspects of the rivalry, from the tech war to the battle for military supremacy in the Western Pacific, and assessed its overall trajectory. The timing for this exercise was propitious, given that it has been roughly a decade since America declared cold war against China—and given that this contest could last decades more.
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