Collins Chong Yew Keat
Despite ASEAN’s efforts to increase its friendshoring efforts to court BRICS, GCC and other parts of Global South in revitalising its stabilising and hedging role and in increasing dependence with China, this remains a self fulfilling utopian view driven by ignorance of current and future realities where the future of power parity still lies in the US.
Without ever having the might and capacity for its self defence, ASEAN will still be relying on the US security umbrella and for as long as this fact remains, ASEAN cannot ever be masked by its own self fulfilling fantasy of wanting to be central and non-aligned and getting the best from both worlds.
ASEAN is now feeling deeply vulnerable to the sudden shocks due to the decades of convenient piggyback on Washington under previous leaderships, and ASEAN knows that this void cannot be immediately filled by China, even though Beijing is seen to be the de facto economic alternative and main supplier of capital and resources for the region.
Knowing this fact, while at the same time being extremely wary of upsetting Washington and Trump, ASEAN’s tone is subdued and calculated.
China’s geographical reality of being ASEAN’s most powerful neighbour has been the most pressing factor in forcing ASEAN to maintain its strategic hedging and neutrality model, with the fear of long term aftermath of retaliations from Beijing that will affect the region’s security and economic survival.
Hence, this outdated model no longer works, and with China now facing a time trap to its power relativity, this will further expose ASEAN to both direct and indirect impact from the potential of conflicts.
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