Moscow’s war against Ukraine has seen no meaningful progress toward peace in the past month as hostilities have escalated with Russia preparing a list of conditions for a ceasefire that would be agreeable to Kyiv.
Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to capitalize on Western political divisions, interpreting weak European sanctions as a sign of diplomatic success while Kremlin media emphasizes Russia’s control of battlefield momentum.
Russia’s militarized economy shows signs of strain due to rising inflation, stifled civilian sectors, and diminishing oil revenues as Moscow’s aggressive posturing risks economic instability.
The fever of diplomatic battles around Russia’s war against Ukraine in the first three weeks of May has broken, leaving few meaningful results. The intensity of trench warfare is unabated, while the scale of mutual drone strikes has increased, with Kyiv coming under several cruel attacks. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to presume that he has withstood the pressure for an immediate cessation of hostilities without inviting the ire of U.S. President Donald Trump, who appeared to be satisfied with the long telephone conversation last Monday (Re: Russia, May 21). The threat of new U.S. sanctions has receded, and the threat of new European sanctions is perceived in the Kremlin as so insignificant that Kirill Dmitriyev, Putin’s aide and key negotiator, has ventured an opinion that the European Union spends too much time and effort on economic self-destruction (RIA Novosti, May 23). For the next round of bilateral talks with Ukraine, Moscow is preparing a list of conditions for a ceasefire and a memorandum outlining the terms of a peace deal. Neither document, however, is drafted in a manner that would be remotely agreeable to Kyiv (Nezavisimaya gazeta, May 20).
Putin’s conceit is evident in the upbeat tone of commentary on the outcome of the diplomatic sparring in Russian mainstream media, which is superficially deferential to Trump and only hints at how Russia has not abandoned its interests (Nezavisimaya gazeta, May 20; Kommersant, May 23). The noisy crowd of “patriotic” pundits is even more explicit in hailing Putin’s triumph and deriding Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s failure to persuade Trump to put more pressure on Russia (TopWar.ru, May 22). Only a few experts dare to suggest that Trump’s desire to make a peace deal remains undiminished, and Moscow should therefore consider meaningful compromises to proceed with a new “reset” in relations with the United States (RIAC, May 22). Their arguments aim to link the tactical benefits of demonstrating flexibility with Russia’s strategic interest in ending the unwinnable war (Forbes.ru, May 23).
The Kremlin keeps pressing the point on controlling the initiative in combat operations and progressing toward the ultimate goal of subjugating Ukraine and breaking the trans-Atlantic solidarity and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) unity (Re: Russia, May 23). The immediate aim of relentless attacks is to expand the “security zone” in Ukraine’s Sumy oblast ordered by Putin to prevent any hostile incursions into Kursk oblast. In contrast, the proposition for annexing this Ukrainian region is eagerly entertained by Russian jingoist war commentators (TopWar.ru, May 24). This escalation of Russia’s aggression requires a shift from tactical gains to a large-scale summer offensive, for which reserves amounting to several divisions need to be built, while the costly system of attracting volunteers barely delivers the numbers sufficient for compensating the heavy losses (Novaya gazeta Europe, May 21; Media-Zona, May 23). The troops from North Korea, although lightly armed and inexperienced in drone warfare, played a significant role in the Kursk battles. The arrival of reinforcements is uncertain, however, as the trade-offs between Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un are carefully monitored by the People’s Republic of China (The Insider, May 20).
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