The basic contours of President Donald Trump’s China policy and its implications for Taiwan remain uncertain. Many express concern Trump will sacrifice Taiwan for a grand bargain with Beijing. Rear Admiral Mike Studeman (Ret.), for example, suggests that the possibility of Taiwan being traded as “a huge blue chip” in a grand economic bargain cannot be dismissed. Such concerns overlook the key role elite and popular opinion plays in constraining President Trump’s options.
All presidents must secure domestic ratification for international agreements as part of a “two-level game,” and Trump is no exception. Historical and contemporary evidence illustrates that Trump’s maneuvering room for innovative policy on Taiwan is more limited than many assume.
Congressional Support for Taiwan
The Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) does not bind the United States to take any particular action in the event of Chinese aggression, only holding that such acts would be treated with “grave concern.” This means that, from a legal perspective, the American response ultimately depends on the president’s discretion.
Yet observers should not mistake the US Congress’ lack of legal authority for lack of influence. As the Third and Fourth Taiwan Strait Crises reveal, Donald Trump would not be the first US president to have their preference for US-China stability undermined by staunch congressional support for Taiwan.
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