Alexander Taranov
Belarusian officials insist that the joint strategic exercise Zapad-2025 of the Regional Troops Grouping (RTG) of Belarus and Russia poses no threat to neighboring states, has limited parameters, and is purely defensive in nature.
The Belarusian authorities present the scaling back of strategic maneuvers—from what was initially planned as the largest exercise in the history of RTG—to a minimum troop participation level as a de-escalatory step and a demonstration of commitment to arms control obligations and confidence-building measures.
In practice, Russia has simply been unable to generate the necessary troop grouping for a new large-scale offensive against Ukraine from Belarusian territory this time.
This current shift in Russia’s war priorities (seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in full and creating a buffer zone in Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv), however, does not signify an abandonment of plans to prepare for a new large-scale offensive from Belarusian territory in the future.
On September 12–16, a joint strategic exercise (JSE) Zapad-2025 will be taking place on the territory of Belarus and Russia. Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces, Major General Paval Muraveika, stressed that Belarus has been and remains committed to transparency in exercises held on its territory. According to him, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka decided to move the drills away from the western and southern borders of the country to reduce tensions, demonstrate openness and tolerance, and avoid accusations of provocation. The exercises are now planned to be conducted at training ranges deep inside the country or in its eastern part. (Telegram/modmilby, August 31). State Secretary of the Belarusian Security Council Alyaksandr Valfovich contrasted the defensive Russian–Belarusian drills with offensive maneuvers conducted on the territory of neighboring North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) states. He added that, to ease tensions, all training areas were moved further inland, although initially almost all ranges in the Brest and Grodno regions had been earmarked for use (Belta.by, August 27).
Initially, Zapad-2025 was planned to be the largest exercise in the history of the Regional Troops Grouping (RTG) (seeEDM, November 18, 2024). The exercise was originally supposed to exceed the parameters of the snap readiness check of the RTG’s Response Forces during Allied Resolve-2022 (Soyuznaya Reshimost-2022; Союзная решимость-2022), which evolved into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory on February 24, 2022 (see EDM, January 26, February 9, 16, 2022).
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