David Roche
The New Cold War is not a forecast. It’s here and now. Where the conflict takes us does need forecasting, however. For our destination I shall set out some scenarios for you to choose from. But first a bit of history.
We had a few misconceptions in 1989, when we welcomed the ‘end of history’, meaning the end of systemic confrontation between hegemonic great powers, after the Berlin Wall fell. And also in 2001, when we invited China to participate in the free world economy by joining the WTO. The idea was that the richer China got, the more Chinese society would become like us, espousing our democratic niceties. China actually became more dictatorial the more it succeeded in becoming a poverty-free, middle-income economy. A few bouts of liberalisation and social eruptions came to nothing. Since President Xi Jinping came to office in 2013, societal control and conformity have become increasingly systemic and ubiquitous. Anecdotally, a decade ago, China had a security camera for every ten citizens. Now there is one for every two.
Military forecasts went similarly awry. Accepted wisdom was that China would never seek to grow its military in step with its booming economy. One reason for this was the typical Marxist-Leninist fear that a big army could threaten the Party’s grip on power as much as protect it. China was expected to opt for a relatively modest military, heavy on boots and light on tech. The PLA would only develop a limited range of key weapons systems to keep foes like the Russians and the US at bay. But China would not rival or threaten them militarily, so the thinking went. Now, China’s military seeks to match that of the US both in mass and sophistication in the air, on sea and on land. China has all but succeeded in this goal – except for nukes. And China is rushing to close that gap. That is what lies at the heart of the New Cold War.
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