Can Kasapoğlu
Since the conclusion of the 12-Day War on June 24, 2025, Tehran has worked assiduously to restock its arsenal and enhance its capabilities. The Islamic Republic is rebuilding its stocks of ballistic missiles, pursuing an intercontinental strike capability, and gearing up for the next round of hostilities. These efforts threaten European North Atlantic Treaty Organization members, America’s allies in the Middle East (Israel and the Gulf Arab monarchies), and the mainland United States.
Three developments have been driving Tehran’s actions. First, recent exchanges with Israel have affirmed two aspects of Iran’s strategy: (a) that hiding missiles and launchers underground can ensure that at least a small number survive even the heaviest strikes and (b) that mass salvos can either penetrate or attrit US and allied air and missile defenses. Second, Iran’s missile industry has at least partially weathered sanctions, mainly thanks to support from China and North Korea. Third, Iran’s space program has given Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) cover to pursue the development and acquisition of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of targeting the continental US. President Donald Trump’s recent statements indicate a willingness to support Israeli military action if Iran continues to enhance its ballistic missile arsenal.
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