The Iranian commanders who fatefully gathered in a Tehran compound last night or were killed as they slept spent decades building the regional militias, the arsenal of missiles and drones, and the nuclear programme that compelled others to take Tehran seriously. They believed they had found the right formula for the defence of Iran’s regime, territory and critical infrastructure. It was a costly endeavour that alienated many of the country’s neighbours and faraway powers and caused havoc in the Middle East, but it gave its leadership an inflated sense of purpose and power. It took two waves of attacks by Israel to shake the whole edifice. Last October, it took out most of Iran’s advanced air defences, after which Israel became the master of the air and of the clock.
With Donald Trump entering the White House, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu got the acquiescent partner he needed, with an unlimited supply of weapons and intelligence regardless of the horrors he inflicted on Gaza. Early this morning, Israel decapitated much of Iran’s military and scientific leadership and destroyed some nuclear and military facilities.
Notwithstanding its claim that this was a pre-emptive strike, Israel is the clear aggressor in this case. Judging from the subdued western statements this morning, however, this fact no longer seems so meaningful as international law and diplomatic norms erode in plain sight. This attack is about raw power, not about regional stability or better outcomes for everyone.
Israel has embarked on a campaign that will necessitate several waves of attacks, the key constraint being the availability of aircraft and the distance between its air bases and targets in Iran. The critical facility of Natanz has been hit hard, but other installations remain intact, notably the Fordow enrichment plant, buried deep beneath a mountain.
Israel has once again demonstrated undeniable intelligence superiority and operational prowess. If confirmed, the reports that commando units and drone systems pre-positioned inside Iran were key to the first wave that took out senior commanders and weapons systems suggest that Israel has more tricks up its sleeve. It will keep the advantage and could expand the target list to kill Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and destroy or disable its energy installations.
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