Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Leon Li, Truly Tinsley
Overall: In 2025, China’s military activity increased in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, near Japan, and beyond the First Island Chain, reflecting an overall rise in operational tempo and geographic reach. Of the areas surveyed in this report, the only one to show a decrease in operational tempo is the China-Russia joint exercises.
Taiwan Strait: In 2025, the PLA conducted a record-breaking level of air and maritime activity around Taiwan, sustaining the higher operational tempo of PLA activities that began following William Lai’s inauguration as Taiwan’s president in May 2024. This led to a marked increase in both average monthly PLA activities as well as a higher baseline of PLA activity. However, there was a minor year-over-year decrease in PLA activities in the latter portions of 2025, likely reflecting a temporary, tactical adjustment on China’s end. In 2025, China also conducted two large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, named Strait Thunder-2025A and Justice Mission 2025.
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