For some time, I have been collaborating with Peter Singer to explore deception operations, how deception and surprise have played a role in the Ukraine War, and to ascertain what this might mean for the future of military deception in Ukraine as well as in other military institutions.
Deception, the act of deliberately misleading an adversary so that they will take actions that contribute to your own goals, has a long history and enduring value in war. However, there is a difference between how countries such as China and Russia emphasize deception in all military endeavors, and how Western nations integrate deception into military planning. To compound the challenge for modern military organizations, new technologies and ongoing conflicts are reshaping how military deception is planned and conducted.
Because of these factors, a “deception gap” has opened up between the military institutions of authoritarian powers and the West that must be addressed.
Our report explores existing ideas about military deception, principally through the lens of doctrinal principles of Western military doctrines. It has also investigated the military trends that act as disruptors to force change in the planning, execution, and measurement of military deception operations.
The contents of this report provide foundational knowledge for developing multiple lines of endeavor that could improve the conduct, and outcomes, of future military deception activities. A range of changes and new programs, across the breadth of military endeavors, are examined in the final chapter of the report. These areas for improvement incorporate personnel training, education, and development; doctrinal and tactical evolution; equipment design and procurement; and strategic and policy issues.
The pace of learning and adaptation that is being witnessed now in Ukraine, from both sides, continues to accelerate. Learning cycles for drone operations and technology are now just a couple of weeks. Ukraine and Russia are locked in an adaptation battle on the ground where tactics change every two to three months.
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