Julian McBride
China is adopting a deliberate and sustained approach to expanding its soft power and global influence. Eyeing a growing militarized foothold in the Indo-Pacific, China is taking a chessboard approach to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Neither outright militarily backing Russia, condemning the invasion, nor voting in favor of the illegitimate annexations, China is taking a passive, yet calculated approach. Wanting a fractured West, while simultaneously bringing Moscow under its fold, Beijing seeks to position itself as a legitimate superpower, promote multilateralism, and test the coalition of the willing if the Chinese government gives the green light for future military provocations in the Asian Pacific.
Amidst the ongoing war, Russia was internationally isolated, accumulating more sanctions than North Korea, and became increasingly reliant on economic aid and exports to China. During the numerous United Nations General Assembly resolutions against the war, occupation, and annexations, Beijing has abstained numerous times – neither condemning nor supporting Moscow’s aggression. A major factor as to why China does not support Russia’s annexations openly is due to fears of the West changing its foreign policies on Taiwan. If Beijing were to openly back Moscow, Western countries could reconsider the ‘One China policy’ and provide further military and diplomatic support to Taiwan. Nevertheless, Beijing has seldom cracked down on Chinese companies that send critical components for Russian weaponry, particularly drones. According to a July 2025 Bloomberg report, 92% of all drone components are of Chinese origin, and with Russia’s ongoing production, drones are playing a significant role on the frontlines.
The prolonged war has led to exhaustion in not just the Ukrainian and Russian militaries and society, but also in Western perception. The gridlock benefits China for several reasons. Russia is a historical rival of China, and both countries have clashed throughout various governments, including the mid-1800s and the Cold War, over border disputes. Moscow occupies Outer Manchuria, a region that Beijing has eyed for return to the Chinese fold, much like Taiwan. Internationally isolated and under stringent sanctions, Russia is becoming increasingly reliant on exports to China, as well as economic relief.
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