Karan Thapar
Just as the US ambassador-designate Sergio Gor admitted to “minor hiccups” in India-US ties and assured that the two countries are “not that far apart right now on a (trade) deal”, one could ask how badly damaged the relationship is. What impact could improving relations between Washington and Beijing have on India’s relationship with America? And if India doesn’t stop buying Russian oil could we see a second or, even, third phase of additional tariffs?
Former foreign secretary Shyam Saran believes “this is certainly a most challenging time for Indian diplomacy. There is no doubt that we are perhaps in a more vulnerable situation than we’ve been for quite some time”. Meanwhile, there have been positive exchanges between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi on social media. Parallelly, Trump is reported to have asked the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on India if Delhi persists with oil purchases from Moscow.
Let’s come to developments that could seriously impact Delhi’s relationship with Washington. First, Trump continues to talk about his very good relationship with China and his friendship with Xi. He’s keen to do a deal with Beijing and he’s even talked about visiting China. The question is how far will he go? Could he sacrifice Quad for a big deal with China? The New York Times says Trump has no plans to visit India for the Quad Summit. Does this mean the Indo-Pacific strategy is no longer central to the Trump Administration’s foreign policy? That would have a markedly deleterious influence on India-US relations. It would push us to the margins from the central position we once had in America’s policy vis-à-vis China. Saran puts it pithily: “India is most comfortable when its relations with the US and China are better than their relationship with each other.” That’s not the case today. The vibes between Washington and Beijing are certainly better than those between Washington and Delhi.
This raises the question: Is there a possibility of some sort of G2 emerging between America and China? If yes, would that “legitimise” China’s dominance of the Asian region? India definitely would not want that.
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