Denny Roy
U.S. grand strategy under the new Trump administration remains unsettled. There are strong indications Washington is moving toward a nascent hemispheric retrenchment approach. It is not yet clear, however, whether that would include a withdrawal of US strategic influence from the Asia-Pacific region. If so, the consequences for the region will be dramatic.
According to media reports, the Trump administration’s soon-to-be-released National Security Strategy breaks with recent practice by prioritizing homeland security and threats within the Western Hemisphere over countering China. This follows months of other statements and actions suggesting a desire to consolidate the United States’ control over its own geographic region, including interest in annexing Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal; renaming the “Gulf of America”; and dispatching U.S. Navy vessels to waters near the coast of Venezuela to intimidate the Maduro government.
The White House has also backed away from the United States’ accustomed postwar leadership role in Europe by distancing itself from NATO and showing little willingness to meaningfully punish Russian aggression against Ukraine. The U.S. government has decided to stop funding programs for building Europe’s capacity to defend against a possible attack from Russia. The movement toward a permanent NATO-U.S. separation is not based solely on policy disagreements, but also stems from an ideological schism.
In the Middle East, the Trump administration’s approach involves mostly diplomacy and economic deals. Despite the air strikes he ordered against Iran, the Trump team favors reduced U.S. military commitments. Indeed, his MAGA base is highly sensitive to any apparent departure from the promise to avoid another “forever war” in the Middle East.
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