Pavel K. Baev
Russia’s September 9–10 drone attack, when at least 19 decoy Gerbera drones entered Polish airspace, caused little physical damage but triggered a swift response, including operation “Eastern Sentry,” in a kinetic test of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) resolve.
Moscow’s incursion occurred alongside large-scale drone attacks on Ukraine and the launch of Zapad-2025 exercises, possibly to demonstrate long-range aviation capabilities despite losses from Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb, while simultaneously cultivating plausible deniability and testing NATO’s reaction.
NATO’s military response included shooting down four of the drones and Article 4 activation, while broader Western sanctions continue to deepen Russia’s economic crisis.
The incursion of at least 19 Russian drones into Polish airspace on September 9–10 produced plenty of shock but hardly any awe. The damage was minimal because the Gerbera decoy drones that Russia deployed in the attack, cheap Shahed-mimic drones that Moscow uses to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, were not carrying explosives. One Russian drone landed on the roof of a rabbit pen so smoothly that the animals were unharmed (Radio Svoboda, September 11). The incident was nevertheless extremely dangerous, and the North American Treaty Organization (NATO) responded accordingly despite Moscow’s claim that the incursion was unintentional (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, September 10). The response was swift and multilateral, and by September 12, NATO launched a new allied operation, Eastern Sentry, to bolster air defense along the entire Eastern flank (Kommersant, September 11; Meduza, September 12). After many hybrid attacks, the Russian drone incursion into Poland represents the first kinetic test of NATO unity and resolve. While the full outcome is still in the making, the Kremlin can hardly be satisfied with its test’s result so far.
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